Integrating invasion and disease in the risk assessment of live bird trade.

AimInternational trade in plants and animals generates significant economic benefits. It also leads to substantial unintended impacts when introduced species become invasive, causing environmental disturbance or transmitting diseases that affect people, livestock, other wildlife or the environment. Policy responses are usually only implemented after these species become established and damages are already incurred. International agreements to control trade are likewise usually based on selection of species with known impacts. We aim to further develop quantitative invasive species risk assessment for bird imports and extend the tool to explicitly address disease threats.LocationUnited States of America.MethodsWe use a two-step approach for rapid risk assessment based on the expected biological risks due to both the environmental and health impact of a potentially invasive wildlife species in trade. We assess establishment probability based on a model informed by historical observations and then construct a model of emerging infectious disease threat based on economic and ecological characteristics of the exporting country.ResultsWe illustrate how our rapid assessment tool can be used to identify high-priority species for regulation based on a combination of the threat they pose for becoming established and vectoring emerging infectious diseases.Main conclusionsOur approach can be executed for a species in a matter of days and is nested in an economic decision-making framework for determining whether the biological risk is justified by trade benefits

Invasive Species in Europe: Ecology, Status and Policy

We tested the accuracy of an invasive aquatic plant risk assessment system in the United States that we modified from a system originally developed by New Zealand’s Biosecurity Program. The US system is comprised of 38 questions that address biological, historical, and environmental tolerance traits. Values associated with each response are summed to produce a total score for each species that indicates its risk of invasion. To calibrate and test this risk assessment, we identified 39 aquatic plant species that are major invaders in the continental US, 31 species that have naturalized but have no documented impacts (minor invaders), and 60 that have been introduced but have not established. These species represent 55 families and span all aquatic plant growth forms. We found sufficient information to assess all but three of these species. When the results are compared to the known invasiveness of the species, major invaders are distinguished from minor and non-invaders with 91% accuracy. Using this approach, the US aquatic weed risk assessment correctly identifies major invaders 85%, and non-invaders 98%, of the time. Model validation using an additional 10 non-invaders and 10 invaders resulted in 100% accuracy for the former, and 80% accuracy for the latter group. Accuracy was further improved to an average of 91% for all groups when the 17% of species with scores of 31–39 required further evaluation prior to risk classification. The high accuracy with which we can distinguish non-invaders from harmful invaders suggests that this tool provides a feasible, pro-active system for pre-import screening of aquatic plants in the US, and may have additional utility for prioritizing management efforts of established species

Economic and Environmental Impacts of Harmful Non-Indigenous Species in Southeast Asia

Harmful non-indigenous species (NIS) impose great economic and environmental impacts globally, but little is known about their impacts in Southeast Asia. Lack of knowledge of the magnitude of the problem hinders the allocation of appropriate resources for NIS prevention and management. We used benefit-cost analysis embedded in a Monte-Carlo simulation model and analysed economic and environmental impacts of NIS in the region to estimate the total burden of NIS in Southeast Asia. The total annual loss caused by NIS to agriculture, human health and the environment in Southeast Asia is estimated to be US$33.5 billion (5th and 95th percentile US$25.8–39.8 billion). Losses and costs to the agricultural sector are estimated to be nearly 90% of the total (US$23.4–33.9 billion), while the annual costs associated with human health and the environment are US$1.85 billion (US$1.4–2.5 billion) and US$2.1 billion (US$0.9–3.3 billion), respectively, although these estimates are based on conservative assumptions. We demonstrate that the economic and environmental impacts of NIS in low and middle-income regions can be considerable and that further measures, such as the adoption of regional risk assessment protocols to inform decisions on prevention and control of NIS in Southeast Asia, could be beneficial

Weed Risk Assessment for Aquatic Plants: Modification of a New Zealand System for the United States

We tested the accuracy of an invasive aquatic plant risk assessment system in the United States that we modified from a system originally developed by New Zealand’s Biosecurity Program. The US system is comprised of 38 questions that address biological, historical, and environmental tolerance traits. Values associated with each response are summed to produce a total score for each species that indicates its risk of invasion. To calibrate and test this risk assessment, we identified 39 aquatic plant species that are major invaders in the continental US, 31 species that have naturalized but have no documented impacts (minor invaders), and 60 that have been introduced but have not established. These species represent 55 families and span all aquatic plant growth forms. We found sufficient information to assess all but three of these species. When the results are compared to the known invasiveness of the species, major invaders are distinguished from minor and non-invaders with 91% accuracy. Using this approach, the US aquatic weed risk assessment correctly identifies major invaders 85%, and non-invaders 98%, of the time. Model validation using an additional 10 non-invaders and 10 invaders resulted in 100% accuracy for the former, and 80% accuracy for the latter group. Accuracy was further improved to an average of 91% for all groups when the 17% of species with scores of 31–39 required further evaluation prior to risk classification. The high accuracy with which we can distinguish non-invaders from harmful invaders suggests that this tool provides a feasible, pro-active system for pre-import screening of aquatic plants in the US, and may have additional utility for prioritizing management efforts of established species

Impairments in hearing and vision impact on mortality in older people: the AGES-Reykjavik Study.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.to examine the relationships between impairments in hearing and vision and mortality from all-causes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) among older people.population-based cohort study.the study population included 4,926 Icelandic individuals, aged ≥67 years, 43.4% male, who completed vision and hearing examinations between 2002 and 2006 in the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study (AGES-RS) and were followed prospectively for mortality through 2009.participants were classified as having 'moderate or greater' degree of impairment for vision only (VI), hearing only (HI), and both vision and hearing (dual sensory impairment, DSI). Cox proportional hazard regression, with age as the time scale, was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) associated with impairment and mortality due to all-causes and specifically CVD after a median follow-up of 5.3 years.the prevalence of HI, VI and DSI were 25.4, 9.2 and 7.0%, respectively. After adjusting for age, significantly (P < 0.01) increased mortality from all causes, and CVD was observed for HI and DSI, especially among men. After further adjustment for established mortality risk factors, people with HI remained at higher risk for CVD mortality [HR: 1.70 (1.27-2.27)], whereas people with DSI remained at higher risk of all-cause mortality [HR: 1.43 (1.11-1.85)] and CVD mortality [HR: 1.78 (1.18-2.69)]. Mortality rates were significantly higher in men with HI and DSI and were elevated, although not significantly, among women with HI.older men with HI or DSI had a greater risk of dying from any cause and particularly cardiovascular causes within a median 5-year follow-up. Women with hearing impairment had a non-significantly elevated risk. Vision impairment alone was not associated with increased mortality.National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Aging (NIA) N01-AG-12100 NIA Z01-AG007380 National Eye Institute (NEI) ZIAEY000401 National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders (NIDCD) Division of Scientific Programs/IAA Y2-DC-1004-02 Hjartavernd (Icelandic Heart Association) Althingi (Icelandic Parliament

Economic and Environmental Impacts of Harmful Non-Indigenous Species in Southeast Asia

10.1371/journal.pone.0071255PLoS ONE88-POLN

Alternative futures for global biological invasions

Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways; in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social–ecological developments

Dissociating the effects of alternative early-life feeding schedules on the development of adult depression-like phenotypes

Neville, V., Andrews, C., Nettle, D. and M. Bateson (2017). Dissociating the effects of alternative early-life feeding schedules on the development of adult depression-like phenotypes. Scientific Reports 7: 14832

Social Relationships and Mortality Risk: A Meta-analytic Review

In a meta-analysis, Julianne Holt-Lunstad and colleagues find that individuals' social relationships have as much influence on mortality risk as other well-established risk factors for mortality, such as smoking

Promise and challenges of risk assessment as an approach for preventing the arrival of harmful alien species

CITATION: Keller, R. P. & Kumschick, S. 2017. Promise and challenges of risk assessment as an approach for preventing the arrival of harmful alien species. Bothalia - African Biodiversity and Conservation, 47(2): a2136, doi:10.4102/abc.v47i2.2136.The original publication is available at http://abcjournal.orgBackground: Harmful alien species impose a growing environmental, economic and human well-being burden around the globe. A promising way to reduce the arrival of new species that may become harmful is to utilise pre-border risk assessment (RA) tools that relate the traits of introduced species to whether those species have become established and harmful. These tools can be applied to species proposed for intentional introduction so that informed decisions can be made about whether each species poses an acceptable risk and should be allowed for import. Objectives: A range of approaches to RA tool development have emerged, each relying on different assumptions about the relationships between traits and species impacts, and each requiring different levels and types of data. We set out to compare the qualities of each approach and make recommendations for their application in South Africa, a high biodiversity developing country that already has many invasive species. Method: We reviewed five approaches to pre-border RA and assessed the benefits and drawbacks of each. We focused on how pre-border RA could be applied in South Africa. Results: Recent legislation presents a framework for RA to evaluate species introductions to South Africa, but we find that this framework assumes an approach to RA that is relatively slow and costly and that does not leverage recent advances in RA tool development. Conclusion: There is potential for proven RA approaches to be applied in South Africa that would be less costly and that could more rapidly assess the suite of species currently being introduced.https://abcjournal.org/index.php/abc/article/view/2136Publisher's versio